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Friday, April 13, 2012

Is Anyone Surprised That Happened?


On February 29th North Korea announced it would suspend nuclear weapons tests and uranium enrichment, as well as allow inspectors to monitor its main nuclear facility.  In turn United States agreed to give the county tons of desperately needed food aid.

Approximately one minute after its Friday the 13th launch, North Korea’s Kwangmyongsong (Bright Shining Light) exploded, with debris falling back to earth and landing in the Yellow Sea.  Amidst the post-launch hype of North Korea’s failed “weather satellite” the United States announced it will suspend food aid shipments and Russia, China, and India agreed that the attempted launch violated UNSC sanctions.  Of course South Korea and Japan haven’t missed the opportunity to condemn North Korea for spending hundreds of millions of dollars developing this rocket while its citizens are impoverished and malnourished.

But was anyone really expecting this latest kerfuffle to play out any differently?  This was North Korea’s 3rd failed “satellite” launch, though it is the first they have admitted to the North Korean public.  (North Koreans are told that the other two satellites were launched into space and are broadcasting songs and information to the rest of the world.)  North Korea has also preformed two nuclear weapons tests in 2006 and 2009, and numerous long range missile tests.  All of these are in violation of UNSC sanctions and prompted condemnation and the freezing of foreign aid. 

Every time the North Korean government has suckered the international community into sending them food aid, they have subsequently reneged on their side of the deal or otherwise violated international sanctions, prompting foreign aid to freeze. 

The Cartoon of the Week for April 13, 2012 sums my sentiments up pretty well, or at least the look on the face of the reporter in the bottom right of the image. 

Why Do We Keep Setting Ourselves Up For Disappointment?

This time I believe it was primarily because this was the first such agreement with North Korea under the rule of Kim Jong-Un.  International leaders simply couldn’t refuse the chance to kick the tires on the new leader, hoping that his upbringing in Switzerland, as opposed to in North Korea under his father, would mean the apple did in fact fall very far from the tree.  Hindsight being 20/20, that wishful thinking proved nothing more than a dream. 

Is There a Right Answer?

Two years from now when North Korea comes back to the table promising to freeze its nuclear weapons program and stop testing missiles in exchange for food aid, what should we do?  Should we refuse, knowing they weren’t going to hold up their end anyway?   Or should we agree, and console ourselves with the fact that we saved thousands of North Koreans from starvation. 

By agreeing to North Korea’s deals we are continuing down the same path of appeasement, which has proven useless in persuading North Korean leaders to abandon their nuclear weapon and missile programs.  Unfortunately the facts on the ground mean refusing to send North Korea food aid will result in North Korean children going hungry, and dying from starvation. 

Clearly the root problem is North Korean leadership, which would rather spend $200 million on a missile instead of spending the money on planting crops.  But sanctions with proving ineffective at influencing North Korean policies, what other options are there for the world to exert soft power over North Korean leadership? 

Again, the reality of the situation is that while North Korea has nuclear weapons pointed at Seoul and Tokyo there is little the world can do to strong arm Pyongyang, worst of all, they know that.