It was a busy weekend in the world. The biggest story is undoubtedly the death of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il. I’ll comment on that soon, but first I would like to react to recent events in Syria which will probably go unnoticed.
On Friday December 16th Russia deployed the Admiral Kutznetsov carrier and strike group to the Syrian port of Tartus. Once there the carrier and strike group will conduct military drills with Syrian forces. Russia has also supplied Syria with 72 shore-to-sea missiles and Syria has deployed 21 Scuds to the Turkish border, five of which are reportedly armed with chemical warheads. Additionally Syrian Vice President Farouk A-Shara travelled to Moscow as US Secretary of Defense Panetta arrived in Ankara.
On December 15th Human Rights Watch released a report entitled, "By All Means Necessary!" In the report HRW provides the testimony of Syrian Army defectors who give the name and rank of the officers who gave the order to Syrian soldiers to 'shoot to kill' unarmed protesters.
http://www.hrw.org/news/2011/12/15/syria-shoot-kill-commanders-named
Also relevant is that American Special Forces leaving Iraq have been diverted to Jordan to take positions against Syrian tanks along the shared border. Three months ago Syrian President Assad warned Jordan’s King Abdullah II against granting asylum to Syrian deserters and allowing arms to pass to opposition forces, King Abdullah II has not ceased either activity. http://www.debka.com/article/21577/
Finally Syria and the Arab League have just agreed on a plan to allow Arab observers into the country. The Arab League suspended Syria’s membership in the group and imposed diplomatic and economic sanctions a month ago. http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/20/us-syria-arabs-elaraby-idUSTRE7BJ1H520111220
Clearly there are three main pairings of players in this broader international conflict; Syria and Russia, NATO and Jordan, and the United Nations and Arab League. Although Russia recently put forward a UN Resolution condemning the violence by both Syrian government forces and their opposition, supplying Syria with missiles and sending a carrier group to conduct military drills is clearly a commitment to defend Syrian sovereignty and the Assad regime.
Conversely NATO (primarily Turkey and the U.S.) and Jordan who in varying capacities support the Free Syrian Army, the ambitions of Syrian protesters, and want President Assad to step down from power. Like Russia and Syria, these nations have made a point of showing that if necessary they are ready and able to take military action.
Caught in the middle are the United Nations and Arab League. The UN has released numerous reports chronicling the horrific events transpiring in Syria. Likewise a month ago the AL suspended Syria’s membership because of the actions it was taking against protesters opposing President Assad. So although these organizations are idealistically aligned with NATO and Jordan, they will not consent to military action to end the conflict.
While the UN General Assembly and 14 members of the Security Council may agree to support a no-fly zone over Syria, Russia will not. Its military commitment to Syria clearly shows that it will oppose (with force if necessary) and foreign plans for a humanitarian intervention. The first and most likely method Russia will employ to prevent international action will be to use its veto power as a P-5 Nation. This will prevent the UN from passing a resolution similar to UN Resolution 1973, which approved of the no-fly zone over Libya. Without such a resolution any international intervention in Syria would be lacking official UN support and will therefore be less popular with some foreign leaders who would condone an intervention for acting against the will of the UN. http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/19/us-syria-un-idUSTRE7BI1LB20111219
With regards to the Arab League, its recent relations with Syria are among the strongest the organization has ever criticized one of its members. On Monday December 19th Syria agreed to an Arab League plan to have 150 observers monitor events on the ground. Secretary-General Nabil Elaraby announced that all of the 150 observers should be in Syria by the end of December. It is important to note that in early November the Syrian government agreed to an AL plan to end fighting, release prisoners, and open a dialogue with the opposition, yet it was not until a recent round of AL imposed economic sanctions and travel restrictions that Syria has come back to the table and decided to move forward with this agreement.
Several things are clear from these recent events. The first and foremost is that international pressure on Syria to cease killing unarmed civilians is mounting. As a result increasingly severe sanctions have been imposed against Syria, which in turn are causing changes in Syria’s behavior.
Second, as the world polarizes over these recent events, Russia, Syria, Turkey, Jordan, and the United States have drawn lines in the sand (and water) with carrier strike groups, tank formations, and Special Forces. So as contentious grows, the major players have solidified their positions, increasing the likelihood of an international conflict.
With little gray area left, whatever happens regarding Syria will likely happen soon. Of course my hope is that President Assad steps down as peacefully as former President Ben Ali of Tunisia or even Mubarak of Egypt. However Assad has already done more to hold on to power than either of these disposed leaders. With international pressure continuing to mount the odds that this conflict ends calmly seems scarce, if not fictitious.
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